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Investment Newsletter for the End of September, 2019

Posted on October 10, 2019 by Daniel DollingerOctober 10, 2019

The stock market over the last month is up a little bit. The Dow is up roughly 513 points or about 1.9%. The quarter is about flat. The topic of this newsletter will be currency and inflation. Let’s start with currency.

What is Currency?

Currency is a medium of exchange. Prior to currency being used, we had barter. That means we exchanged physical goods or services for other physical goods or services. For example, if I had excess cows but needed a sheep and someone else had excess sheep but needed a cow, we could exchange a cow for a sheep and we would both be happy. The problem is that I would need to find someone that had what I wanted and wanted what I had, and vice versa. Therefore, it would be difficult to find trading partners. With the usage of currency, I could trade my cow for currency and that currency for a sheep. Everything is more efficient because we are always trading with a good that everyone wants (currency) so we don’t have to hunt for trading partners. What you need to remember is that by itself, currency has no value. Its value is what you can trade it for. That ties into our next topic which is inflation.

What is Inflation?

Inflation is simply an increase is the cost of the goods and services within an economy that can be purchased. Most importantly it eats away the value of your currency. If a sandwich costs 5 dollars and you have 10 dollars, what’s the value of your currency? The answer is 2 sandwiches. If the cost of a sandwich rises to 10 dollars, the value of your currency is 1 sandwich. You are poorer, even if your level of currency stays the same. Remember currency has no intrinsic value.

Why this is important

There is an expression that says “Cash is King”. If you have a lot of liquidity needs, the expression is correct. Perhaps you are about to buy a property or pay tuition for junior (or the old age home for your mother). For everyone else it is wrong. You do not want your wealth to be held in cash. Bank interest will not keep up with inflation. If your wealth is held in currency, your wealth will hemorrhage away. You lose money in a slow steady drop. You want your wealth in something that will keep up with or exceed inflation such as stocks, real estate, certain types of bonds, etc. When you are risk adverse and hold cash, you are making in reality making a decision that is guaranteed to lose over time.

We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter. We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

As I’m writing these to help my readers, I would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what I should write next. If you want me to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to my blog.

If anything that I mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading my free e-book. The book contains my thoughts on investment management and some information that I think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

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Investment Newsletter for the End of August, 2019

Posted on September 10, 2019 by Daniel DollingerSeptember 10, 2019

The market during August was down somewhat. Despite various news items sending the market up and down, in the end the market was only down in August about 450 points. That number of points is not insignificant, but to keep it in perspective, the month before that the market went up. For July and August combined, the decline was a boring 197 points. In the long run, these monthly fluctuations are meaningless noise and should be interpreted as such

That brings us to the point of this newsletter, which is volatility. The stock market is volatile. Some days it goes up, other days it goes down. Sometimes the reason is understandable and sometimes the reason for the market movements are completely inexplicable. It is a wild ride but, in our opinion, it is a ride that is worth riding. However, if you were to listen to the various talking heads on television you wouldn’t think so. They keep saying things like “is now the right time to be in the stock market?”. The answer in our opinion is always yes. A recession is eventually coming as they always eventually do, but nobody knows when exactly its coming. Anybody who says they know is wrong. Anyone who truly knew when a recession was going to hit would stay quiet about it and make a gargantuan amount of money via the use of put options (derivatives that pay out when securities go down in value).

Timing the market is a fool’s game. More importantly, it is also an unprofitable game. The stock market is one of the most potent wealth creators in the world. To use a cliché turn of phrase “you need to be in it to win it”. Over the long run, the stock market has steadily gone up. It has approximately doubled every 10 years. In order to enjoy that increase you need to be invested. The US stock market could crash tomorrow, but it could also keep going up for another 5 years. Nobody knows. Even if the market crashed tomorrow the stock market would eventually recover. Even after the crash in 2009, the market eventually recovered and soared to higher peaks. If you withdraw your money during a crash you are assuming you know when to get back in. Realistically you are not going to know when to do that.

Don’t be scared off by volatility. It is scary when the market plunges 30% but realize that decline is very temporary. Don’t be distracted by the wildness of roller coaster, remember the roller coaster will eventually end safely at its destination.

We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter. We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

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Investment Newsletter for the End of July, 2019

Posted on August 13, 2019 by Daniel DollingerAugust 13, 2019

July was a very flat month. The Dow Jones is up approximately half a percent, which is insignificant. In today’s newsletter, we will discuss 2 things about the stock market. 1. Its value to you and 2. Its purpose to society.

The stock market is composed of companies that via the stock market you are able to buy into. When you buy Apple stock, you are buying equity in the Apple company, and your investment over the long run will track the growth of the company. In the short term, investing is volatile, but in the long term, a broad index like the S&P 500, is, at its essence, a reflection of the economy. When you invest in the S&P 500, you are betting on the continued growth of the United States’ economy. In our opinion, that is a good bet to make. If you disagree, do you believe the same about the economy of England, Canada, Mexico, etc. The stock market is a global marketplace. Investing in the stock market will enable you to keep earning money long after you retire, so any financial burdens you have in the future are reduced. As retirement involves a reduction of income, any reduction in your financial burden is essential. The stock market is one of the most effective wealth builders in the world. Over the last 35 years, the Dow Jones has grown at annualized rate of about 9%. Due to the power of compound interest, that’s huge. If you invested 50,000 dollars into the Dow Jones in 1985, you would have over 970,000 dollars right now. That is a level of return that vastly exceeds inflation and is statistically superior to other methods of investment. There is an incredible amount of wealth being created all over the world, the stock market is a way for you to share in that wealth.

The purpose of the stock market is to raise money. In order to grow, companies sometimes need more money than they are willing to obtain through borrowing or internal fundraising. They might need money to hire more people, to buy equipment, research and development, etc. The companies thus sell part of their equity to others in the Primary market and those buyers in turn if they need money can sell that equity to us on the Secondary market. Without the stock market, companies would be forced to grow much slower and there would likely be a lower quality product offering for us to purchase.

We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter. We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the End of June, 2019

Posted on July 8, 2019 by Daniel DollingerJuly 8, 2019

While it has been a little volatile, the market has been really good this last month. The Dow went up by more than 7%. It didn’t seem so nice when we were living it at that moment, but that just proves that sometimes you can’t see the whole forest when you’re stuck in the trees. Sometimes you need to take a larger perspective and not get bogged down in the day to day dramas.

The main point of this newsletter will be cash. In particular, what it is and why it you should not keep too much of your assets in the form of it. Cash is a medium of exchange. It is simply a tool used to make the free market more efficient as cash is vastly superior to barter. What is important to know here is that cash has no inherent value. The value is only what you can buy with it. If you double your cash but everything becomes 4 times more expensive, then you are poorer even though you have more cash. That increase in cost of living is known as inflation and it’s critical to financial planning. When you keep cash in the bank and earn some piddly zero or almost zero rate of interest, you are losing buying power and potential quality of life. The reason is that the cost of everything you want to buy is likely going up at a higher rate than the interest you are earning. You need to keep enough cash on hand to cover your spending needs and a little extra to cover any unexpected emergency, beyond that amount, any extra cash is a mistake. It is an investment with a negative rate of return.

There are many ways to get a better rate of return than holding your wealth in cash. You can invest in the stock market, real estate, or if you are wealthy enough any of the myriad of investment options exclusive to wealthier individuals. You can also invest in bonds, which tend to not give you as nice of return as other investment options but they are still vastly superior to cash. For many people, the wealth they accumulate is the wealth they are going to live on in retirement. A 1% difference in annual return compounded for enough years could be the difference between comfort and destitution. Given the stakes, we feel it is essential to create the best financial plan possible. That financial plan likely has less cash in it than you are anticipating. We always are available to discuss these concepts further. It is your money and we will never do anything you are uncomfortable with. We want to give you the intellectual tools necessary to make the best decisions possible. It will always be your choice.

We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter. Always at your service.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the End of May, 2019

Posted on June 17, 2019 by Daniel DollingerJune 17, 2019

May was a poor month for the markets. All indexes and your portfolios are down. The prior month April was very good. The market fluctuates a lot. It is hard to read much sense into it on a short-term basis.

So, why does it go up and down? There must be a reason. The talking heads on tv and the other commentators (we will call them the “experts”) declare a reason for every day’s movement. Some days they may have several reasons depending on the time of day. The reality is the declared reasons are bunk. No one really knows but the audience will not accept that answer.

We just had a bad month. Is the reason the China tariff fight, the Mexico proposed tariffs, general fear (Chicken Little: “The sky is falling”), computer trading by the big hedge funds, random noise, or some other factor? It is probably some combination of the above but we can never find out. So, we take our best guess.

We choose to follow a plan rather than have the talking heads tell us what to do. Our plan is based on percentage allocations based in turn on your risk profile. We do not like reacting to fear and greed. Incidentally, we are watching the decline closely and will likely be rebalancing (by buying more stock/stock funds) if the market declines more.

We have introduced large cap dividend stocks to many clients. About fifteen portfolios now include a collection of these companies. So far, clients have been very pleased with this inclusion. We have identified six or seven very large companies with long established dividends in the neighborhood of 5%. Shell Oil, Phillip Morris, IBM, Haines Brands, AT&T, etc. have been in business for many years without missing a dividend payment. Our typical pattern is to identify five or so of these stocks that you have no personal objection to (hello Phillip Morris) and allocate 2% to each. We then reduce the bond allocations some and the stock allocations some. These stocks are riskier than stock funds but a lot less risky than regular stocks. They also pay much better than bonds/bond funds. We include these stocks in the allocation plan. We buy and sell when they go out of allocation. Discipline always. No exceptions.

Please let us know if you are interested in knowing more concerning these stocks and how they could be useful to you

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the end of April, 2019

Posted on May 14, 2019 by Daniel DollingerMay 14, 2019

It was a great month. All of you made a lot of money. It was also a great year to date. Many of the indexes are now at all time highs. Remembering back to how this last December looked, with its sharp decline, it would have been easy to panic but you did not. We have only one thing to say. Thank-you.

The topic of this newsletter will be how we (Dollinger Management) choose stocks. Dan has discussed with many of you the idea of allocating some of your portfolio towards dividend and/or value stocks. We think it would be valuable for us to explain how we pick the stocks we invest in. There are two main factors we consider, the quality of the company and the cost of the stock.

In regards to the first point, remember that a share of stock represents partial ownership of the company that issued that stock. If a company has 100 shares of stock and you own 1 of them, then you own 1% of the company. You own 1% of their cash, their debt, their equipment, etc.

While there is the occasional exception, for the most part to find a good stock you first need to find a good company. In order to determine if it’s a good company we look at factors such as whether the company is making money, is it producing a product that people want, has the company been around for a while, does it pay a consistent dividend, etc. Ultimately, we want a company that has made a lot of money for many years. Many companies could have 1 or 2 good years due to factors beyond their control such as a strong overall economy, but no company by luck can have strong consistent profits for 100 years. If a company thrived during the Great Depression, then the company is probably strong. We want at least ten years of consistent profits and great dividends.

The second factor we consider is the cost of the stock. By cost we don’t mean, whether the shares costs 1 dollar a share or 500 dollars a share. We mean, for every dollar we spend how much value do we get. We want a bargain price for what we receive. Remember that a stock represents ownership in the company. If you own 1% of the stock of a company, you own 1% of all that company’s stuff.

There are many ways to measure if the stock price is cheap compared to we are receiving. The price to earnings ratio is the most common metric we use when evaluating the cost of a stock. It is the most common metric because we believe that ultimately it is a company’s earnings that drives a company’s growth and thus is the good proxy for its intrinsic value. We also pay attention to price divided by book value, dividend yield, and the financial statements. We particularly in the financial statements look at debt load, where the cash is being spent, and general safety issues. Dan has personally prepared over 12,000 financial statements over the last 30 years. Reading one is not a problem.

As the market has reached a new high, we will be rebalancing in the near future. Thank-you again for your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the end of March, 2019

Posted on April 5, 2019 by Daniel DollingerApril 5, 2019

A lot of volatility in the stock market this month, but in the end it didn’t go anywhere. The Dow ended the month a few points up compared to the beginning of the month. The quarter, however, was fantastic. The biggest lesson to take from this is try to freak out about daily fluctuations and swings. What happens day to day has no significance at all when it comes to long term movements.

The first main thing discussed in this newsletter will be a reminder to file your tax return. The reason is that being forced to pay a bunch of penalties and interest for being late will hurt your financial health and wellbeing. The deadline is April 15, or you can file for an extension. Either file your tax return or file for an extension as soon as you can.

The second main thing discussed will be how to calculate income taxes owed. Income taxes means that you pay a percentage of how much you’ve earned during the year to the government. However, the level of income used for the calculation will be smaller than the amount of income you actually earned because of something called a deduction. Deductions are subtracted from your reported income. For example: Let’s say you earned $50,000 during the year. If you have $13,000 worth of deductions, the amount of your income that is subject to tax is $37,000.

There are 2 broad categories of deductions. You get to use the larger of the two. They are itemized deductions and a standard deduction. The standard deduction varies based on marital status and age. You cannot use both on a tax return but you are allowed to use one method on the federal and a different method on the state. Itemized deductions are in response to behavior that you do such as giving to charity, paying mortgage interest, property tax, paying medical bills, etc. You and/or your accountant can figure out the category that reduces your tax bill the most. There is also something called credits that directly reduce your tax bill. These are also in response to behavior. For example: if you originally owed $5000 in tax and you use a $1000 credit, you now owe only $4000 in tax. You can get a complete list of deductions and credits that are available from the internet. You can also call Dan and ask. He does most of your tax returns.

The United States has a progressive tax structure. That means the more you earn, the higher percentage you pay. The higher percentage is only applied to the little piece of income earned above a cutoff number. The lower percentages are used for the portion of the income below the cutoff. Let’s now put everything learned in the newsletter together in a final example. Let’s say you earned $52,000 during the year. You decide to use the $12,000 standard deduction (the standard deduction available to most single people). Your taxable income is now $40,000. Because of the progressive structure, you pay 10% on the first $9700, 12% on the next $29,775, and 22% on the final $525. You owe $4658.50. You apply a $1000 credit and your final tax bill is $3658.50.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the end of February, 2019

Posted on March 8, 2019 by Daniel DollingerMarch 8, 2019

The market went up over 730 points in February. It is a very nice result and it means that most of you made money. A real question is why it went up so much. We don’t recall any significantly good news that justifies it. The economy is about where it was before. There are more hopes about a trade deal happening between the United States and China, but there is also a lot of pessimism in the news about the economy in 2019. We figure those two items should be a wash. In the end February’s gain is as inexplicable as December’s fall. That leads to the first point of this newsletter. Movements in the market often don’t make sense. While we know that stock prices are affected by news, we often don’t know by how much and in what direction. Our advice when you see something bad in the news is to not worry about it. It may hurt the stock market but it might not. The government shutdown was certainly a large piece of negative news, but the stock market grew throughout.

The second point of this newsletter is the importance of data measurement. In order to progress and advance yourself in any endeavor you need to know where you stand. It applies to losing weight, to cooking, etc. It also applies to finance. Pop quiz: How much money did you spend during the month of February? How much money did you earn? To the people who can’t answer those questions, I recommend that you start tracking those things. You should track those things in order to prevent negative surprises. You don’t want to suddenly find out that you can’t pay the bills that are due that day. Glance through your expenses and see if anything is unnecessary. Now what is or is not necessary varies on the person, but decide if any expenses are unnecessary to you. Check if you are spending more money on something than you wish. Perhaps in the end you are happy with everything you spend money on, but for your sake it’s important for you to know that for certain.

Another important example of data measurement is a personal balance sheet. It is a record of the monetary value of what you have and the monetary value of what you owe. Try to maximize the former and minimize the latter. Knowing your balance sheet is essential for your retirement or any time that your income level drops. If you can’t count on new money entering your bank account, you need to know your ability to survive without it.

Hopefully you got some value from this newsletter. We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the end of January, 2019

Posted on February 4, 2019 by Daniel DollingerFebruary 4, 2019

What a nice month! The profits in January almost made up the entire loss from December. The panic in December was intense. We received several phone calls but almost all of you held tight to the plan. We actually re-balanced and bought more at the depth of the pit. The fear or program trading (or both) were obviously overdone. It did not feel overdone at the time. It felt like disaster. We (Dan and Eli) trust the system (the plan) that we set up more than the fear. We held and you are all winners as a result.

Tax season is upon us. Most of you will have lower taxes this year because of the new tax bills. There are several planning issues to be aware of.

The biggest change for most of you is the huge increase in standard deduction. There is also a $10,000 limit in state tax deductions and an elimination in equity line of credit deductions. As a result, most of you will no longer itemize deductions for federal. Oregon, California, and Arizona clients will still itemize for state. If you have a mortgage on your home, think seriously about paying it down or off if you can. Rental property and business interest are still fully deductible. If you are generous with your charity, think about donating double every other year.

The IRA rules are unchanged. There is a minimum distribution required the year after you are 70.5 years old. We recommend that you start the same year you turn 70.5. If you wait until the next year, you have to do a double distribution. Contribution limits are up a little because of inflation. You still cannot take a distribution until you are 59.5 without a penalty (a few exceptions).

Ok, not a tax issue, but do not buy real estate right now. Wait until the crash and snap up the bargains when everyone says you are stupid. The real estate market rolls over and dies every ten or fifteen years on the west coast and particularly so in Oregon and Washington (and likely Arizona). On a personal level, we are right now accumulating our resources. We will know we are getting close when our real estate agent tax clients take clerical jobs to support themselves and/or when our contractor tax clients are living on their third credit card. Both of those things happened in 2008. Real estate right now is flat but has not yet crashed.

We like real estate as an asset class. Most of you have REIT funds at five or ten percent of the portfolio. It is part of the plan. Our problem is that buying real estate directly is a concentrated position. Risk is very high. If you have a $300,000 rental property and $300,000 in a portfolio, real estate is now half your total wealth, ignoring your house.
We appreciate your business and trust.

Thank-you,
Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

E-Book Download

Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Learn About My Business

Investment Newsletter for the end of December, 2018

Posted on January 3, 2019 by Daniel DollingerJanuary 3, 2019

This month and quarter were very poor. The markets were substantially down not just in the US but also worldwide. The result was painful losses in your portfolios. We believe these losses will reverse into gains for you but cannot tell you when. The market goes in and out like the tide but less predictable. Our purpose today is to discuss what causes these swings. There are several reasons.

Dan has argued for years that the crowd of investors is irrational. They rush in with greed and they panic over the cliff with fear. The result is stock prices that swing too high with good news and swing too low because of bad news.

A second cause is the computerized trading formulas that some hedge funds and other big/similar players use. These trading algorithms (computer programs) move millions of shares without human interaction. They can trade many times per second. When the market starts moving sharply, the algorithms can order immediate buy or sell orders that swamp the market. The result is like gasoline on a fire. A much sharper drop. A far faster rise.

These two causes are not mutually exclusive. They both can exist. The algorithms can order a sell off. Then people panic and sell out. Then the algorithms order more sell offs, etc.

We cannot ignore, of course, several other causes. A politician may say something or not say something. The wrong group may win here or somewhere else in the world. Some piece of economic news may be unexpected. There are many reasons for uncertainty. Any or all can be critically important to some people.

We recognize that we have our own biases. We (Daniel and Eli) cannot and should not discount any of these as invalid. The truth is that all of these causes and perhaps more play into the market movements. The second truth is that no one really knows how all these things fit together. What is the dollar effect on the market of a government shutdown? We don’t know either. Does the irrational panic account for 2%, 5%, 10%, etc. of the drop? No one knows how to put a number on it. Did the algorithms really order a sell off? It will take the academics six months to figure it out which is six months too late to be useful to you.

As investors, all we can do is try to control our own emotions and educate ourselves as much as we can. To quote the great investor Warren Buffet, “Be greedy when the market is fearful and be fearful when the market is greedy.” As you all know, our use of allocations is basically contrarian. We are always facing the other direction from the market swings. A few days ago, we rebalanced almost all of your accounts. We bought equities and sold bond funds. Hopefully, we purchased at the bottom of the melt down and your profits on the recovery will be even higher as a result. Sticking to the plan leads to higher long-term profits.

Dan and Eli

Investment Fee Schedule

Rate	Assets Under Management
1.44%	Below $125,000
1.00%	Between $125,000 and $750,000
.85%	Between $750,000 and $1,250,000
.80%	Between $1,250,000 and $1,750,000
.75%	Between $1,750,000 and $2,500,000
.70%	Between $2,500,000 and $3,250,000
.65%	Between $3,250,000 and $4,250,000
.60%	Above $4,250,000

A single rate is applied to the whole account. I will waive personal tax return fees for accounts over $1 million. For accounts that are above $5,250,000, we’ll need to discuss a custom rate.

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Questions for the comments

Did my newsletter make sense? Do you agree or disagree with what I said?

Daniel Dollinger CPA, CFP®

Certified Public Accountant and Certified Financial Planner Professional

Investment Newsletter for the end of February, 2019

Investment Fee Schedule

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A Simple Overview of Financial Planning

Questions for the comments

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