Investment Newsletter for the end of April, 2023

Posted on by October 8, 2024
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In previous newsletters on multiple occasions, we have talked about the importance of discipline and sticking to your financial plan. To ignore the disaster of the day and instead look to the long term. Presently, we have an opportunity to put that idea into practice. In March of 2023, three banks failed. Those banks are Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. Because of those failures First Republic Bank started suffering and later collapsed. Pac West is probably next. The stock market, in response to the failures, freaked out and became very volatile. One side of that volatility is all the people selling because they think those four bank failures are the beginning of a full banking crisis like what was seen in 2008-2009. The other side of that volatility is the people buying because they see the depressed prices as an opportunity to get a bargain.

Addressing the fears of the sellers we have two points.

1. It is unlikely that the failure of those 4 banks will lead to a full banking crisis. The failures of the first three banks were largely because of their exposures to cryptocurrency. When the price of cryptocurrency fell, scared people engaged in a bank run. That is unlikely to happen to larger banks because larger banks have a much smaller exposure to cryptocurrencies. Also, those banks are relatively small compared to the full United States banking industry therefore it is unlikely that there are going to be ripple effects of these failures on banking in general. Finally, some banks are “Too Big to Fail”. The government will intervene in case of significant bank failure. First Republic Bank at the behest of the government was bought by JP Morgan Chase Bank.

2. Even if there is a big banking crisis and economic collapse, that is not necessarily a reason to sell. Throughout its history, the United States has suffered many economic collapses. Historically every time it happens, the country eventually recovers and in fact roars to much greater heights. In 2008-2009, the stock market fell by 50%. Since then, the stock market has quintupled. As the timing of recoveries cannot be accurately predicted, we assert that it is best to stay invested and not try to time things. It is important to keep a long-term view of your investments. Doing so will likely lead to much greater profits for you.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Thank-You

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of March, 2023

Posted on by September 17, 2024
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In this newsletter, we are going to discuss debt. Now that interest rates are going up, the topic becomes very relevant.

Understanding and managing your debt is a critical part of the financial planning process. Debt is how much you owe and the payments you make on that debt are a constant drain on your finances. As a result, you might think it is best to pay off that debt. That is usually true but not always.

Different types of debt have different interest rates associated with them, think of it as the cost of holding that debt. You should only consider holding onto debt if you earn a higher rate of return AFTER TAX from your money than the interest rate on the debt. For example, if you have a debt that charges 3%, but you can earn 4%, then you can consider getting rid of that debt. But since you probably cannot deduct the interest and the income is taxable, the two rates are close to the same thing.

There are other factors to be looked at for most people. Paying off debt is a guaranteed boon to your finances. In the above situation paying off that debt is a guaranteed return of 3%. There is zero risk involved. That 4% return likely has some risk involved. To compensate you for taking that risk, you should be getting a return of 5 or 6%. In addition to the financial benefits of paying off debt, there is a psychological benefit as well. When Daniel and Yinan finished paying off the mortgage on their house, it took a tremendous amount of psychological pressure off them. Even though the interest payments were low, and Daniel could very likely get an investment return larger than that interest rate, the knowledge that they were debt free was very comforting. Eli has been very careful in his life to not accrue any debt for he also takes psychological comfort in being debt free. Ultimately the decision of how much debt to carry depends on you. Generally, the higher the risk the higher the potential return. However, the higher the risk, the higher the chance of potential disaster. How much risk can you take both financially and psychologically.

Our recommendation for most people is that some risk should be taken. We firmly believe in investing in stocks even though they are inherently riskier than things such treasury bonds. Balancing risk and safety are essential parts of the financial planning process.

If you do decide to pay off your debt, pay the debt with the highest interest rate first. When that’s done move to the next highest interest rate, pay it off and repeat that process. Do not pay off your rental property debt, until you have all other debts killed. Rental mortgages are deductible on your tax return.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Thank-You

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of February, 2023

Posted on by January 30, 2024
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One term that is very relevant to today’s world is inflation, which will be the topic of this newsletter.

Over time the buying power of currency goes down. 100 years ago, 1 dollar was far more valuable than 1 dollar today. There are multiple possible explanations for why currency devalues over time. We will discuss some of the possible explanations below. The explanations are not mutually exclusive, and reality can be a mixture of multiple explanations.

The first possible explanation is that inflation is caused by an increase in aggregate demand. As mentioned in earlier newsletters, there is a connection between demand and price. Essentially as more people want to buy an object, unless supply increases to compensate, the result will be more people competing to purchase a limited supply. Think of an auction and how people are bidding for a single item. One quote by researchers Barth and Bennett that summarizes this explanation is “too much money chasing too few goods”. Some ways that aggregate demand is increased are government spending, lower unemployment, and population growth.

Another possible explanation is that inflation is caused by a decrease in aggregate supply. There is a connection between supply and price. If the supply of an item goes down, the people who wish to buy the item will have to compete harder with each other to get it. For example, let’s say 100 people wish to buy chairs. If there are 100 chairs available, everyone is happy and there is no competition. If there is only 1 chair available, then the people will compete fiercely with each other. Competition is done on the basis of price. Basically, people are saying I will pay more to get the item I want. Some ways that aggregate supply is decreased are natural disasters and war.

Another possible explanation is that the supply of currency (as created by the government) is increasing faster than how quickly goods are being created in the economy. Again, inflation would be caused by “too much money chasing too few goods”.

The next question that must be answered is that with inflation draining the value of your currency, what should you do with your currency. If you keep your currency in a vault under your house, eventually that currency will become completely worthless. Often, banks don’t pay a high enough interest rate to keep up with inflation. We assert a great way to deal with inflation is investing in assets such as stock and real estate. Historically, as inflation increases, those assets increase as well. They often increased either the same as or more than the inflation did.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Thank-You

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of January, 2023

Posted on by January 19, 2024
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In this newsletter, we are going to discuss what stocks are, the primary stock market, and the secondary stock market.

Stocks are in essence an ownership stake in a company. If a company has 100 total shares of stock, if you own 1 share than you own 1% of the company. You own 1% of all the assets and liabilities. Technically, you have 1% of the control, but in practice you would have the ability to vote in the elections for the board of directors. The members of the board would then theoretically act in your interests.

Crucial things underlying stocks are the primary stock market and the secondary stock market. When a company need to raise money, there are 2 main ways that it can be done. The company can borrow money or sell equity. To sell equity, an investment bank is approached. The investment bank takes the equity that companies offer and arrange for it to be sold on the primary stock market. Think of how a real estate agent facilitates the sale of a property. When the equity is sold (to various institutional investors), the proceeds go to the company. The company therefore has the capital need to fund expansion or other activities, but in return they concede some control and some potential future profit.

The people who bought the equity in the primary stock market might not want to hold on to that equity forever. If that’s the case, they can sell that equity on the secondary stock market. For sales on the secondary stock market, the original company doesn’t receive any money. Think of a garage sale or other occasions where used goods are sold. When the item is sold, the original manufacturer doesn’t receive anything. However, the secondary stock market is essential to the functioning of the primary stock market. Without a secondary stock market, fewer people would be willing to participate in the primary stock market as they wouldn’t have the ability to sell their stock position if they no longer want it. Therefore, the secondary stock market indirectly provides the company money. When Dollinger Management is purchasing or selling stock in your portfolio, it is done on the secondary stock market. The price of a share of stock is determined by the balance of buyers and sellers. If more people want to buy than sell, the price goes up. If more people want to sell than buy, the price goes down.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Thank-You

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of December, 2022

Posted on by December 5, 2023
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4th quarter was good and the second half of the year was good. Unfortunately, the first half of the year stunk so bad that the year was down.

As a result of the recent meltdown of Sam Bankman-Fried and his crypto companies, we feel a good topic of discussion is due diligence. In his case, he promised very high returns. He is now being criminally charged. Apparently, many billions of dollars are now gone.

Due diligence is when you investigate the claims of a person or company. The unfortunate truth of the world is that people sometimes lie. As a result, you need to check if their lying. You don’t need to be paranoid or cynical but you should be aware of what’s going on. There have been many fraudulent claims made over the years, usually in an attempt to trick people out of their money. Another great example would be Elizabath Holmes and her company Theranos. She made fabulous claims and has now been convicted of fraud.

The key points are that the bad guys make too good to be true promises. They say the old rules do not apply. The world is now different. They are smooth presenters and spread lavish money to key influencers. Politicians, charities, entertainment figures, etc. They now have respectability and you believe them.

What exactly due diligences entail depends on the situation. In a financial context it would be usually involve examining the financial statements and reading the company reports. For the former, people usually look to see if numbers have been manipulated via various accounting tricks. For the latter, people can check if misleading language have been used or if the report leaves out important information. Often, if a company seems to be too good to be true, then something is wrong. Now sometimes a company is actually extremely good, but those companies are the exception not the rule.

If a promised profit sound too good to be true, WARNING. The old rules always apply. The world is not different.

Investment is likely the best way to accumulate wealth due to the power of compound interest. If you were to deposit 100 dollars each month into the Dow, then based on historical returns, you will have over 1.3 million dollars after 50 years. If instead you invest all that money into a fraudulent company, then you have 0 dollars. Doing your due diligence can be very profitable. You should probably still invest your money. Money that is not invested is not valuable for building your wealth. You just need to be careful how you invest. In our opinion, due diligence will minimize your risk.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

E-Book Download

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Investment Newsletter for the end of November, 2022

Posted on by September 21, 2023
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November was a good month. Everyone was up.

When inflation is extremely high as it was in November, one organization that is extremely relevant is the Federal Reserve. In this newsletter we will define what the Federal Reserve is and what they do.

The very important takeaway from that statement is meaning cannot ascribed to that noise. Predictions cannot be made. If the stock market plummets 50%, it doesn’t mean that in the next month it won’t plummet another 30%. It could plummet 30%, it could rise 80%, there’s no way to know. It also applies to the converse, the stock market rising 100% doesn’t reveal anything regards to whether or not it will rise or fall in the short term. In the long term there is a concept called reversion to the mean. An abnormal result will eventually reverse itself. However, short term delusion is unpredictable in its duration.

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It was created in 1913 in attempt to prevent or reduce the harmful impact of financial crises. The Federal Reserve has two main goals. Goal 1: Is to maximize employment. Goal 2: Is to keep inflation low and stable. The goals are to some extent contradictory, so the Federal Reserve has to balance the two goals against each other. The goals somewhat conflict as high employment often leads to high inflation. High employment means more people have money and thus more people are buying things. Therefore, more items are being bought. The higher demand for goods drives the price of those goods up and thus the purchasing power of a dollar is reduced. Inflation is thus higher. Low employment means fewer people have money to buy things. Therefore, fewer items are bought. The lower demand for goods drives the cost of goods down. The purchasing of a dollar goes up. Inflation is thus lower.

The Federal Reserve has 3 main tools that it uses to attempt to accomplish its dual mandate (high employment and low inflation). Those tools are Open Market Operations, modifying the Discount Rate, and modifying the Reserve Requirements. Open Market Operations is when the Federal Reserve buys and sells financial assets (such as bonds) to commercial banks in order to control how much cash those commercial banks have. The discount rate is the interest rate the Federal Reserve charges on the loans it makes to commercial banks. Reserve Requirements are how much cash must be held as a percentage of the loan amounts. When you deposit money into a bank, that money doesn’t just sit there. It is lent out by the bank. Reserve requirements are simply how leveraged the bank is. For example: a reserve requirement of 50% means for every 1 dollar held by the bank, the bank can lend out 1 dollar. Meaning, if one dollar is deposited in, 50 cents is lent out.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

E-Book Download

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Investment Newsletter for the end of October, 2022

Posted on by August 22, 2023
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As you remember, September stunk big time. October, however, was wonderful. It was up by more than September was bad. Be careful when looking at these short-term swings. They really do not mean anything.

The stock market has fluctuated a lot over the last year. It has fallen and risen, and we’re sure you want to know what is going to happen in the near future. The truth is we don’t know. It is impossible to know and anyone claiming to know is either wrong or lying. The movements of the stock market in the short term are random. Every person who buys or sells a security (whether the reason is smart or stupid) will drive the stock price up or down. In the long term (years) we can make a reasonable prediction that rationality will prevail because historically it has. However, in the short term it is just noise.

The very important takeaway from that statement is meaning cannot ascribed to that noise. Predictions cannot be made. If the stock market plummets 50%, it doesn’t mean that in the next month it won’t plummet another 30%. It could plummet 30%, it could rise 80%, there’s no way to know. It also applies to the converse, the stock market rising 100% doesn’t reveal anything regards to whether or not it will rise or fall in the short term. In the long term there is a concept called reversion to the mean. An abnormal result will eventually reverse itself. However, short term delusion is unpredictable in its duration.

It is tempting to buy more when the stock market rises and sell when the stock market falls. That is in our opinion a bad way to invest. You cannot assume that past stock movements are going to mean anything to the future. After making your purchases, future stock movements are unpredictable. We invest based on a fundamental analysis approach. We invest in mutual funds that are broad market indexes that are in turn weighted based on value vs growth and small cap vs large. When we invest directly in companies, we choose the undervalued based on an analysis of their financial statements. We don’t invest based on technical analysis (analyzing the movement of stock prices) because we think technical analysis is nonsense.

We are going to make the recommendation that regardless of what the stock market does, you stick to your financial plan. Ignore greed and fear and instead invest in companies that you believe in. Ignore the past price movements of the security because it is not relevant. Just invest and wait. We assert that eventually patience will be rewarded.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

E-Book Download

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Investment Newsletter for the end of September, 2022

Posted on by July 12, 2023
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September stunk big time. And, it has gone up 1500 points by October 4th.

The market recently has declined this year quite a bit, which at a casual glance is very scary. However, we argue that it isn’t truly scary but a golden opportunity.

The market has fallen many times in the past, but it has always recovered eventually. The only way the market doesn’t recover is if the United States ceases to exist as a country, which is extraordinarily unlikely. Knowing that the market will very likely eventually recover, we can take advantage of the depressed prices as a way of scooping up some bargains.

One of the biggest stock market crashes in recent history was in 2007. From the beginning of the decline to the bottom, the US stock market fell 50%. From the bottom of that pit to now the US stock market has increased 5-fold. If you had bought stock during the pit, you would have made a very fine return on your investment. At the time of purchase, many would have called you an idiot, but history would have vindicated you. Of course, no one knows when the market is going to turn. Just because the market is lousy doesn’t mean that next month it won’t become even worse. Next year might be even worse than that. However, eventually the market will likely recover. People who had the stomach and fortitude to buy when the world is collapsing will likely profit when the better future comes. As macabre as the expression is, there is some truth to the expression “Buy when there’s blood in the streets”.

A critical part of our investment management practice is taking advantage of the market dips. When the stock market falls, we buy more stock. We increase the portfolio’s exposure to the wild market. To many that would seem risky, but we don’t think it is. In the short term there’s some risk, but in the long-term things are almost certainly going to be smooth and bright.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of August, 2022

Posted on by June 15, 2023
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August was not a great month.

Markets are temperamental. There are many reasons for that. Some of some are rational (differing opinions regarding the value of a company, economic conditions, etc.) and some reasons are very irrational (mania and hysteria). However, regardless of those reasons the only constant of the market is movement. When it moves, it’s important to maintain composure and control. Whenever anything happens, people will scream about how it will affect the company. Sometimes their words are right and sometimes their words are wrong initially, but peoples’ reactions make the words right.

Markets have a long history of short-term irrationality. A great example would be from 1634-1637 when the price of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands soared to astronomical heights. In modern terms sometimes bulbs would sell for nearly $300,000. People paid for bulbs purely because they thought they could sell them to someone else for more money. That is not a sustainable strategy. In February 1637, the market collapsed. More recently, we had the crash of 2008. The crash was caused in part by rampant real estate speculation. Some people would buy on margin worthless properties purely because they knew they could sell them to others at a higher price. The same as Tulip Mania, eventually things collapsed. The point is that eventually rationality usually prevails. Stay rational and stick to your plan.

We cannot guarantee success in the stock market. While strong companies with good profits usually do well, sometimes they don’t. History is filled with examples of good companies with poor stock performance. What we can state is that historically good companies have good stock performance but that sometimes there is a delay. Sometimes it takes time for a company’s good fortune to be reflected in the stock price. Amazon’s stock price suffered several crashes before it become the massive success story that is today. Sometimes success takes time and you can’t let short term price declines demoralize you. The stock market is often a raging storm. In our opinion the best thing you can do is to maintain calm in the face of it.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

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Investment Newsletter for the end of July, 2022

Posted on by April 14, 2023
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July was a very good month. Everyone is up.

Why does the stock market move? It doesn’t seem to be directly tied to the economy, because while the economy is lousy, sometimes the market goes up. At its core the movements of the stock market are all the traders’ cumulative predictions about the state of the economy in the future. Traders that think the economy in the future will be good will buy, which drives the price up. Traders that think the economy in the future will be lousy will sell, which drives the price down. However, the perceptions of those traders are not necessarily based in truth. They may be based purely or in part on the headlines of the day.

You hear on the news a lot of things about the world. One question you might have is how those things affect the stock market. In truth, they can be both extremely significant and not. On their own, most news doesn’t shift the stock market by much. The intrinsic value of a stock is tied to the value of the company it’s attached to. If news doesn’t meaningfully hit the company’s bottom line, then stock movements are temporary. However, people read too much into news and because they think the news is significant, they can make it significant. In many ways, perception determines reality. Something is significant if people think it is. So, while most irrelevant news is brushed off by the stock market, sometimes, its clung to and blown completely out of proportion to its real effects. Also, sometimes significant news is not reacted to properly and it is transformed into insignificant news because of the power of perception. The stock market in the short run can be extremely irrational. In the long run, truth and significance tends to prevail, but in the short run (which can be years) the stock market contains a lot of noise.

We recommend that you ignore that noise. Find investments that have intrinsic value and stick with them. Any short-term movements are likely temporary. Of course, it’s possible that things won’t be temporary, but chances are it will be. Obviously if the company starts performing badly, you should react, but until the company’s bottom line is affected you should stick to the plan.

If you have any questions about your investments, please call at any time. We sincerely hope you got value from this newsletter.

We appreciate your business and trust.

Dan and Eli

As we’re writing these to help our readers, we would be very appreciative of any input in regards to what we should write next. If you want us to write about a particular topic, please contact me. Please contact me if you would like to submit a post to our blog.

If anything that we mentioned above interests you, please consider downloading our free e-book. The book contains our thoughts on investment management and some information that we think everyone should know. You can also download it below.

E-Book Download

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